BIGGER IS BETTER?
In the wake of every contest, we hear the same old cries from the British public. Mostly from people who openly admit to not being fans, but nonetheless, the question from many remains: “why can’t we get Elton John or Robbie Williams to write a song for Ed Sheeran? Surely then we’d win by a landslide?”
So, what if one year, every nation eligible for Eurovision participation decided to send their biggest name, and a strong entry to boot? What would happen? Who would win? Would the UK still finish bottom with zero points, because it’s all political and Europe hates us? The only rule that makes this contest different from any real-life contest is that at least one of the performers or song-writers must have a geographical connection (first-hand or through family) to the country they are representing. That means you, Serhat, and Kitty Brucknell. Sorry for the disappointment.
In this article, I attempt to divulge into the depths of Europe’s biggest names. Finding an appropriate date, host nation and venue for the sake of it, seems pointless and time-consuming, so the dates are Tuesday 10th, Thursday 12th and Saturday 14th May 2022 and the venue is the Palasport Olimpico in Turin. Alessandro Catellan, Laura Pausini and Mika will be the presenters. We’re going to pretend, in this instance, that each of the songs selected (generally their most popular or successful, although in some cases that’s debatable), has been previously unreleased, and will all be shortened to a minimum of three minutes for the contest, in accordance with Eurovision rules.
Firstly, I should stress, however, that the article has a slightly Anglo-centric perspective to it – and the choice of artist is based primarily on how much success they have had in the UK charts. Not that it’s the only factor in determining my decision, of course. I have generally avoided artists who have entered the contest previously (this is incase you are wondering why ABBA are not entering), although in Finland’s case, the Rasmus’ real-life Turin appearance came after I had finished this project, and it was always inevitable that Whigfield would be Denmark’s entrant (you probably don’t know that she entered the Danish National Final in 2018 but under her real name, Sannie).
Notable absentees this year include Belarus, Estonia, Hungary, Montenegro, San Marino and Slovenia. This is because, as far as I’m aware, no artist or band from any of these nations have ever had a hit in the UK charts. Again, I apologise for the Anglo-Centrism here; it’s kind of to prove a point to British fans. Australia were not permitted to enter as there will be an Asian/Oceanic equivalent contest coming soon (watch this space), and Lithuania withdrew, unable to replace DJ Ten Walls – unpopular within many circles of the Eurovision fanbase due to his perceived connections with homophobia, and also because most of his songs – including his would-be entry “Walking with Elephants”, did not meet the criteria for a Eurovision entry as it has no lyrics.
Before we begin, I need to make clear that I began designing this contest during the 2020 lockdown, which means at the time we obviously didn’t know that one of the Big Five would win the following year. Ergo, there are 26 nations competing in the final. With this in mind, the highest scoring eleventh-placed song of the two semi-finals will qualify. This will be determined and announced along with the qualifiers from the second semi-final. I also need to say that, whilst this won’t be a popular decision with some people, Ukraine and Russia will both be entering. I realise that the most likely scenario in any 2022 contest is that Ukraine would win and Russia would not be entering, but politics will be remaining absent from this contest. It’s fictional, after all.
So now, in alphabetical order, we begin with the nations that would participate, and the artist and song they would send.
ALBANIA – Ava Max: “Sweet but Psycho”
A New York native with Albanian heritage, Ava broke through with this #1 single in 2018, and her popularity is continuing to grow. A likely finalist, but may get lost in amongst other similar pop songs. Internally selected.
ARMENIA – System of a Down: “Chop Suey”
Heavy metal and grunge aren’t what you usually associate with Eurovision, so this comes as a refreshing change. As such, it’ll be interesting to see how the voters respond to the Los Angeles band of Armenian heritage. Internally selected.
AUSTRIA – Opus: “Live is Life”
#2 in 1985 – the somewhat cliché-tastic “la la la la la” chorus will no doubt get the crowd up and singing along, but probably won’t get it out of the semi-final. Internally selected, although DJ Otzi was touted as the favourite, but had to withdraw as none of his songs were originals.
AZERBAIJAN – Elyar Fox: “Do it All Over Again”
#5 in January 2014 and had a follow-up with ‘A Billion Girls’ months later which narrowly missed the Top 10 before being consigned to the history books and fading into obscurity. A similar fate seems likely to await him in this contest. Internally selected.
BELGIUM – Lasgo: “Something”
Gotye and Ian van Dahl were the people’s favourites with their classics “Somebody I Used to Know” and “Castles in the Sky” respectively, but both turned down the opportunity; the former due to hoping to enter for Australia in the Asia/Oceania contest, and the latter due to internal politics within the band. Instead, the dance trio emerged triumphant in their National Final.
BOSNIA & HERZEGOVINA – Dua Lipa: “New Rules”
Back for their first effort in 6 years, she hails from North London but has heritage from numerous European nations, and although Kosovo or Albania would have probably been her first choice, she was happy to snap up Bosnia and Herzegovina’s vacancy when they came calling, qualifying through her Grandma. Internally selected.
BULGARIA – Ladytron: “Destroy Everything You Touch”
Although the electro-pop quartet hail mostly from Liverpool, co-singer Miya Aroyo is Bulgarian. They are popular within the LGBT communities having played at numerous Pride events, but that aside, look unlikely to qualify. Internally selected.
CROATIA – Jam & Spoon: “Ride in the Night”
Singer Plavka was born to a Peruvian mother and a Croatian father, and she teamed up with German duo – one half of whom is sadly no longer with us – to form Jam & Spoon for this Euro-dance banger in 1995 – #10 in the UK charts. Was a firm favourite on dancefloors across the continent, but will probably get forgotten in their semi-final. Internally selected.
CYPRUS – Wham!: “Wake Me Up (Before You Go Go)”
George was of Greek-Cypriot heritage, but we know what you’re thinking and, um, there’s a slight problem being able to enter. Well, as he co-wrote the entry, it qualifies. Andrew Ridgeley still features on guitar, and deputising on lead vocals is their 2017 contestant, Hovig. Kristian Leontiou – who had two singles and an album in the UK charts in 2004 – also entered their National Final with his single “Story of My Life”. Despite Fuego’s recent near miss, Cyprus have still yet to win the contest. But with a catchy chorus, flashy staging, LGBT support and the compassionate vote all in their armoury, this could be the time for that to change.
CZECH REPUBLIC – Jason Mraz: “I’m Yours”
American of Czech heritage, his sing-along acoustic love song is a firm favourite at open mic nights, but that alone may not be enough to see it into the final. Internally selected, but natives were invited to vote on their favourite song which included his other big single “I Won’t Give Up” in an online poll.
DENMARK – Whigfield: “Saturday Night”
It was a close-run thing in a DMGP which included 2001 interval act Aqua and their 1997 smash “Barbie Girl”. Late 00’s band Alphabeat also entered with “Boyfriend”, and dance duo Safri Duo applied with their 2001 single “Played Alive” but was rejected due to its lack of lyrics. A fourth victory is not beyond the realms of possibility.
FINLAND – The Rasmus: “In the Shadows”
The only one of the contestants in this contest who also entered in the real one (I should stress, once again, that I began writing this article during the 2020 lockdowns). One would have imagined that, despite Finland’s long-standing tradition of sending bands to the contest, they would have considered themselves “too big” to be interested. Maybe it’s the Maneskin effect? Fellow Eurovision (and UK X-factor) star Saara Aalto once again finished second. And I don’t mean second from bottom this time. They’ll be hoping for a slightly better result than they managed in Turin.
FRANCE – Daft Punk: “Get Lucky”
In what was undoubtedly the most star-studded C’est Vous Qui Decidez yet – with a distinctly dance-pop feel to it, luck was indeed on their side as they beat off stiff competition from Alizee’s “Moi Lolita”, Modjo’s “Lady (Hear Me Tonight)” and Stardust’s “Music Sounds Better with You”. Having come a close second to Maneskin a year ago, will it be second time lucky as they go one better? David Guetta was also invited to compete, but declined, choosing instead to co-present the show with Barbara Pravi.
GEORGIA – Katy Melua: “Closest Thing to Crazy”
She first found fame on CITV gameshow Mad For It aged just 15 – which she deservedly won. Eight albums later, she enters a contest which is not even remotely as daft or immature (quiet at the back, thankyou). Internally selected, this strong ballad will be helped by her continental fanbase.
GERMANY – Nena: “99 Red Balloons”
Singing half in native tongue and half in English has never been a recipe for success, but it didn’t do her chances any harm in their national final, in which Snap!, Lou Bega and the Scorpions were all seen off. One of the 80’s most iconic songs across much of the continent, the outdated sound may hold it back in a final where her nation has struggled in recent years.
GREECE – Nana Mouskouri: “Only Love”
Undoubtedly Greece’s most critically acclaimed singer – she has to date released over 200 albums in an astonishing twelve different languages. This was her only UK single, narrowly missing out on a #1 in 1986. Internally selected, Eurovision fans may recall that she, somewhat bizarrely, appeared for Luxembourg in 1963 – finishing eighth. A repeat of such heights will be no mean achievement, with an outdated, even if beautifully beguiling, entry.
ICELAND – Bjork: “It’s Oh So Quiet”
Undoubtedly their most famous musical export (at least, perhaps, until Sigur Ros came along), this delightful piece of mid-90’s insanity could sink or swim, much like many of her country’s efforts over the years. She narrowly beat off competition from Eurovision legend Dadi Freyr in the Songvakeppin final.
IRELAND – Westlife: “Unbreakable”
Though one fifth of their original line-up is no stranger to the contest – an unsuccessful semi-finalist in 2016 who has also been known to announce their points – it’s a new experience for the group joint third in the list of most number one singles in UK chart history (17 altogether), for the nation with more titles than any other. No pressure, then. Unbreakable may be one of their more forgettable ballads (I didn’t want them to have an unfair advantage) but their popularity should make a difference. Won a competitive National Final in which former host Ronan Keating came a close second with his Boyzone colleagues.
ISRAEL – Yael Naim: “New Soul”
A somewhat non-descript, though essentially likeable, pop song, with shades of You and Me (Netherlands 2012) and Love is Forever (Denmark 2019), they won’t be expecting a fifth title with this internally selected entry.
ITALY – Eiffel 65: “Blue (Da Ba Dee)”
Singer Gabriel Ponte co-wrote the song for Austria’s Lumix and Pia Maria in the real 2022 contest. He’ll be hoping for slightly more success with this late-90’s Europop anthem, which could well provide the host nation with their second successive victory.
KOSOVO – Rita Ora: “R.I.P”
At last making their long-awaited debut, the Pristina-born singer, who grew up in London, will be confident of a good result with her #1 single from 2012. Opening the second semi-final, a return on the Saturday looks a strong possibility. Not many people know she actually has a Eurovision connection, having withdrew from the UK National Final – at the time called Your Country Needs You – in 2008. Internally selected.
LATVIA – Olly Murs: “Please Don’t Let Me Go”
The 2009 UK x-factor champion hails from Essex, but is half-Latvian. This was the song that began his career which has to date included four number one singles including many duets. Internally selected, and a likely finalist, even if not a winner.
LUXEMBOURG – Placebo: “Nancy Boy”
A triumphant return for the micro-state after nearly 30 years away, singer Brian Molko spent much of his childhood just outside Luxembourg City. The title of this song proved divisive within the Eurovision community – some people misinterpreting it as a slur against gay men – and whilst indie bands generally don’t consider entering the contest, it’s worth remembering that a singer with an overtly androgynous nature didn’t do last year’s winners much harm. Internally selected.
MALTA – Texas: “I Don’t Want a Lover”
As Spiteri is one of the most quintessentially Maltese surnames around, it can only be assumed that singer Sharleen has some blood in her. That’s the problem when trying to find someone who can represent an island with a population roughly the same as Leeds or Bristol. Although they never struggle to find singers for the real contest. Needless to say, they were internally selected, and this country-pop song from the Glaswegian band is not likely to give them their long-awaited first victory.
MOLDOVA – O-Zone: “Dragostea din Tei”
One third of the band, Arsenie Toderas, entered in 2006 with Loca, finishing 20th in the final, but for the rest of the group, this is unchartered territory. There’s a guaranteed 24 points on offer from neighbouring Romania (48 if they’re voting in their semi-final) but that alone may not compensate for struggles they may have elsewhere. Internally selected.
NETHERLANDS – 2 Unlimited: “No Limit”
A smash hit both in chart and club circles in 1993 – still used for commercial purposes and even as a football chant nearly 30 years later. Some may even say it’s the ultimate cheese-pop song that would cross-over delightfully into the contest’s environment. As the Dutch returned to a national final for the first time in ten years, they were always the likely winners, even though 2014 runners-up Common Linnets also entered in their National Final.
NORTH MACEDONIA – Cash Cash ft. Bebe Rexha: “Take Me Home”
Another New Yorker with Albanian and North Macedonian heritage, her #5 hit from 2014 may be my personal favourite of all the competing entries, but seems likely to get lost in the semi-final. Internally selected.
NORWAY – A-Ha: “Take on Me”
Morten, as we all know, is no stranger to the contest, having presented their debut homecoming in 1986. Late 90’s boy band A1 entered with “Same Old Brand New You” – qualifying due to Christian’s nationality – he has also entered NMGP himself on numerous occasions, either as a singer or song-writer. Ironically one of their hits was with the same single. Royksopp, Lene Marlin and Sigrid also entered but were all comfortably seen off. A popular song with multiple generations, but the retro nature may still hold it back.
POLAND – Judie Tzuke: “Stay with Me ’till Dawn”
A ballad which peaked at #16 in 1979, she still plays regular concerts, including most recently a co-headline tour with Beverley Craven, but aside from this, has been largely forgotten. A place in Saturday’s final looks a long shot to say the least. Narrowly beat Goo Goo Dolls singer John Rzeznik in their National Final.
PORTUGAL – Shawn Mendes: “Stitches”
Narrowly beating off competition from fellow Canadian national Nelly Furtado and “Touch Me” by Rui da Silva, it seems likely to continue Portugal’s recent good run in the contest, though not to repeat Salvador’s heroics.
ROMANIA – Cheeky Girls: “Touch My Bum”
Beating off the more fancied (in more ways than one) Alexandra Stan and Inna in their National Final, the juries voted it down, but the televoters made up for it (again, we can’t imagine why). A hit-and-miss qualifier, it can expect some points wherever it ends up, but probably more for the visuals than the song.
RUSSIA – TATU: “All the Things She Said”
Taking the unusual step of entering the contest at the height of their popularity, they finished only three points behind champions Turkey in 2003 with “Ne Ver, Ne Bosija”. Despite the country’s current lack of international approval (and participation) due to its actions in Ukraine, and the risk of some excessive, dare I say it, inappropriate action onstage, they should still be one of the favourites, though Yulia most recently proved a place in the final is not their divine right. Beat fellow Eurovision ex-pat Alsou in their National Final.
SERBIA – Holly Valance: “Kiss Kiss”
Holly is actually Australian, but they’re not entering this year. Fortunately for her, she has Eastern European heritage; Serbia being just one of these nations. A striking resemblance to Sertab’s 2003 winner “Every Way That I Can” should do her chances no harm. Internally selected.
SPAIN – Enrique Iglesias: “Hero”
His father may have found fame with the contest in 1960 but his son, you’d assume, would not touch the contest with a bargepole. Fortunately, in this instance, the rules are a bit different. And particularly given its political relevance as a reference to the September 11th victims and emergency services, it could provide Spain with only their second outright victory, and their first for over 50 years. Narrow victor over Los del Rio’s 1996 dancefloor filler “Macarena” (which actually means macaroni, would you believe).
SWEDEN – Swedish House Mafia: “Don’t You Worry Child”
A surprise winner for many over much-loved stars including Ace of Base, Zara Larsson and the Cardigans in an all-star MelFest. Incase you’re wondering, ABBA were approached but declined. You can never rule them out of course, but with EDM/schlager becoming progressively outdated in the Eurovision arena, a seventh title looks likely to elude them this time.
SWITZERLAND – Robert Miles ft. Maria Nayler: “One and One”
Most famous for the #2 hit “Children”, which was illegible due to having no lyrics, Robert himself is sadly no longer with us, so singer Maria Nayler performed the song to a pre-recorded backing track. Internally selected and not expected to make the final.
TURKEY – Years & Years: “King”
Qualifying due to former member Emre Turkmen, they return after a decade long absence with this unusually less than traditional Turkish song. Rarely failed to make an impression on the scoreboard during their mid-00’s heyday, and this modern dance-pop song could prove a surprise package. Internally selected.
UKRAINE – Mila Jovovich: “Gentlemen Who Fell”
Most of you will know her as an actress, particularly from the Resident Evil Movie Series. She’s a woman of many talents, although her career as a singer has been much less successful. Even in a year where compassion for her nation is at an all-time high, this could be the song that ends their record as the only nation to have never failed in qualifying for the final. Internally selected, and little to get excited about.
UNITED KINGDOM – Adele: “Someone Like You”
Perhaps the artist who you most wish they’d send, with the song (or type of) to accompany her. Impeccably performed, minimal staging and the type of ballad that never flatters to deceive in the scoreboard, you’re thinking “if only”, right? Beating Ed Sheeran’s “Thinking out Loud” and Take That’s “Back for Good” by the barest of margins in the return of You Decide, there’s no shortage of pressure on the Brixton lady’s shoulders.
So, here we are on Tuesday 10th May, and here’s the running order for the First Semi-Final:
1. Serbia, 2. Poland, 3. Bulgaria, 4. Turkey, 5. Russia, 6. Sweden, 7. Ukraine, 8. North Macedonia,
9. Austria, 10. Luxembourg, 11. Georgia, 12. Belgium, 13. Greece, 14. Norway, 15. Albania,
16. Moldova, 17. Bosnia & Herzegovina
The first country to qualify for the final is… TURKEY!
The next country to qualify for the final is… SERBIA!
The next country to qualify for the final is… NORWAY!
The next country to qualify for the final is… SWEDEN!
The next country to qualify for the final is… BOSNIA & HERZEGOVINA!
The next country to qualify for the final is… BELGIUM!
The next country to qualify for the final is… ALBANIA!
The next country to qualify for the final is… RUSSIA!
The next country to qualify for the final is… LUXEMBOURG!
And the final country to qualify for the final is… GEORGIA!
However, there is still a possibility that one of the seven remaining nations will qualify for the final. We will let you know on Thursday which, if any, have qualified.
And now, on Thursday 12th May, here’s the running order for the Second Semi-Final:
1. Kosovo, 2. Israel, 3. Latvia, 4. Denmark, 5. Azerbaijan, 6. Czech Republic, 7. Malta, 8. Iceland,
9. Netherlands, 10. Ireland, 11. Armenia, 12. Cyprus, 13. Romania, 14. Finland, 15. Switzerland,
16. Portugal, 17. Croatia
First, we can confirm that eleven countries will qualify for the final, and that means that the seven songs that did not finish in the top 10 on Tuesday are all now eliminated.
The first country to qualify for the final is… ICELAND!
The next country to qualify for the final is… FINLAND!
The next country to qualify for the final is… ROMANIA!
The next country to qualify for the final is… IRELAND!
The next country to qualify for the final is… DENMARK!
The next country to qualify for the final is… CZECH REPUBLIC!
The next country to qualify for the final is… LATVIA!
The next country to qualify for the final is… CYPRUS!
The next country to qualify for the final is… KOSOVO!
The next country to qualify for the final is… PORTUGAL!
And the final country to qualify for the final is… THE NETHERLANDS!
For those of you who may be interested, here is how the countries ranked in the semi-finals (their scores were not devised, but it is based primarily on the success of their entry in the UK charts):
Starting with the first:
1. Albania, 2. Russia, 3. Bosnia & Herzegovina, 4. Turkey, 5. Sweden, 6. Serbia, 7. Norway,
8. Luxembourg, 9. Belgium, 10. Georgia
NON-QUALIFIERS: 11. Greece, 12. Moldova, 13. North Macedonia, 14. Austria, 15. Poland,
16. Bulgaria, 17. Ukraine
And now the second:
1. Netherlands, 2. Denmark, 3. Portugal, 4. Cyprus, 5. Kosovo, 6. Latvia, 7. Ireland, 8. Romania,
9. Finland, 10. Iceland, 11. Czech Republic
NON-QUALIFIERS: 12. Switzerland, 13. Azerbaijan, 14. Malta, 15. Croatia, 16. Armenia, 17. Israel
So, now we have our 26 finalists, here’s the running order for the final:
1. NETHERLANDS – No Limit
2. GEORGIA – Closest Thing to Crazy
3. FINLAND – In the Shadows
4. ROMANIA – Touch My Bum
5. ICELAND – It’s Oh So Quiet
6. BOSNIA & HERZEGOVINA – New Rules
7. ITALY – Blue (Da Ba Dee)
8. PORTUGAL – Stitches
9. DENMARK – Saturday Night
10. RUSSIA – All the Things She Said
11. SERBIA – Kiss Kiss
12. IRELAND – Unbreakable
13. FRANCE – Get Lucky
14. TURKEY – King
15. LUXEMBOURG – Nancy Boy
16. UNITED KINGDOM – Someone Like You
17. LATVIA – Please Don’t Let Me Go
18. NORWAY – Take on Me
19. BELGIUM – Something
20. ALBANIA – Sweet but Psycho
21. CZECH REPUBLIC – I’m Yours
22. GERMANY – 99 Red Balloons
23. CYPRUS – Wake Me Up Before You Go
24. SWEDEN – Don’t You Worry Child
25. SPAIN – Hero
26. KOSOVO – RIP
So, what about the results? Have I actually devised the entire voting system myself – both juries AND televoters? You bet. And how did I manage this exactly? Just educated guessing? Or names out of a hat? No. Much more complicated than that. Although a bit of educated guessing never goes amiss. Hours and hours of research (I knew my First Class Honours Degree from the University of Wikipedia would come in handy eventually).
Making predictions for both juries and televoters is important as it enables me to add in the extra scores where all other factors do not provide enough of an indication. However, first I must consider the other main factors, prioritising what I believe to be most relevant.
The success of the song in the country voting is the most important factor. I carefully analysed the international chart history – particularly of the song which was entered – of all participating artists. In many cases, however, this data was unavailable. The success of their entry and their other singles were considered more for the jury votes, whereas the success of their albums were considered more for the televotes.
Unlike in most contests, where the majority of performers do not have considerable fanbases across the continent, the fanbase of the band or singer will also count for more points than usual. This is much more likely to be emphasised with the televoters.
As previously mentioned, I also have to consider carefully how juries and the public vary. I researched how all participating countries voted between 2016-2021 – looking for potential patterns. For this reason, Italy and France may do better in the final rankings than they would have otherwise (although both of their songs are strong contenders in their own right). Though seasoned fans of the contest do not like admitting this, there is very often a pattern between countries that vote a certain way. This, in many ways, made my life a lot easier; though I made a point of not revolving my scores simply around cliches.
In the cases of Turkey and Bosnia and Herzegovina, neither of whom have been involved in the final for a decade, I had to go back much further, and didn’t have the assistance of the split voting system which was not in place at the time. For Luxembourg – whose last set of votes were in 1993 – I based their televote score primarily on the numbers of expatriates in the country. I realise that pre-empting a nation’s score based on ethnicity and diaspora may not prove a popular move among some fans – arguably reminiscent of the “it’s all political” crowd, but let’s not kid ourselves into thinking it’s never a contributing factor. More to the point, the country’s small population, plus the lack of other statistics available, are surely mitigating factors. As for debutants Kosovo, I had to rely purely on educated guessing.
It seems most likely that Adele will win the jury vote, with Wham! a close second. Fellow ballads from Ireland, Spain and Georgia will also be among the big hitters with the juries – all likely top 10 finishers. But these sorts of songs tend to struggle a lot more with the public – as do the UK – meaning that it’s unlikely they’ll win the contest overall. The public tend to favour more upbeat, visually-oriented novelty acts; which bodes well for France, Denmark and the Netherlands in particular. Over the two, Cyprus appear to be favourites – a likely top 3 with both. A Duncan/Jamala style victory; despite winning neither vote? Quite possibly.
As for the dreaded wooden spoon? Luxembourg – much as it’s wonderful to see them again – are the main contenders, though Lasgo (probably not even most Belgians’ first choice), and Jason Mraz may also find themselves in the unlucky position. Despite the 2021 fiasco where four nations finished with zero from the public, I fully expect every nation to pick up points this year, most likely from both sets of votes.
Here’s my prediction for how the jury votes will finish:
1. United Kingdom, 2. Spain, 3. Cyprus, 4. Netherlands, 5. Ireland, 6. Denmark, 7. Italy, 8. France,
9. Kosovo, 10. Germany, 11. Norway, 12. Sweden, 13. Georgia, 14. Turkey, 15. Portugal, 16. Russia,
17. Latvia, 18. Albania, 19. Bosnia & Herzegovina, 20. Finland, 21. Serbia, 22. Iceland,
23. Czech Republic, 24. Belgium, 25. Romania, 26. Luxembourg
And here’s my prediction for how the televote will finish:
1. Cyprus, 2. Italy, 3. Denmark, 4. Netherlands, 5. France, 6. Russia, 7. United Kingdom,
8. Turkey, 9. Latvia, 10. Norway, 11. Portugal, 12. Spain, 13. Serbia, 14. Kosovo, 15. Ireland,
16. Albania, 17. Bosnia & Herzegovina, 18. Germany, 19. Czech Republic, 20. Georgia,
21. Romania, 22. Sweden, 23. Luxembourg, 24. Belgium, 25. Finland, 26. Iceland
I have decided not to make a prediction for the combined, final table; this allows greater margin for error, and it is difficult to predict – particularly as it’s no ordinary contest – how many points each country will gain.
On a cold Friday evening in October 2021, my long project is finally ready to roll, and so I watched the contest as it would appear on the night. Which includes Te Deum at the beginning and the end, live performances from Italian champions Maneskin and Gigliola, and the entries in order of performance, before reading all the jury scores and adding them to the table as appropriate.
You can also watch it for yourself here:
Little of significant note occurred in the final which was not according to plan; only Nena’s late decision to sing her song in her mother tongue, which although not resulting in disqualification, may lead to sanctions in the form of a fine, a points deduction, or a ban from next year’s contest. Reigning champions Maneskin both opened the show, with their winning song “Zitti E Buoni”, and then performed again – a medley including their worldwide smash hit “I Wanna be Your Slave” and their more recent hit “Mamma Mia” (no, not an ABBA cover).
Bjork somehow managed to fit a mini-orchestra on stage – considering only 6 people are allowed on stage (a rule not amended for this contest), that’s some achievement. Dua Lipa spared no expense in dragging her friends from the music video on stage, wearing little more than a one-piece swimsuit. She was no match for the Cheeky Girls in the battle for least-clothed, however. Eiffel 65 rallied the home crowd with an engaging performance, but will it be enough to keep the contest in Italy for another year?
Perhaps the biggest disappointment was Shawn Mendes, whose band and vocals fell surprisingly flat in comparison to the recorded version. Whigfield appeared to be surrounded by a makeshift swimming pool; proving as ever how impressive Eurovision graphics can be. The TATU girls didn’t quite get up to the antics that some had feared, though did sneak in a quick peck mid-song. The giant lips behind Holly Valance’s performances were a bit predictable, Stevie Wonder and Pharrell Williams made cameo appearances for Daft Punk, and Adele, as expected, captivated the audience with her stellar vocals and simple staging.
Lasgo would be strong contenders for the Barbara Dex Award (inspired by their Belgian compatriot for the worst-dressed entrant), with synth player Dave inexplicably wearing a Tartan kilt, while an all-white staging – clothes and background visuals alike, complete with a couple of human mannequin dolls – could well help Ava Max to some extra points. Enrique invited a seemingly disinterested woman on stage with him, but managed to win her over before the song ended, and Rita brought the show to a close by wowing the audience with a strong performance to mark her nation’s debut.
As mentioned earlier, Maneskin returned for a second performance, but not before the first Italian winner – way back in 1964 – Gigliola Cinquetti (yes, she’s still alive, you cheeky so-and-so) to perform “Non ho l’eta”. Ironically, it translates as “I’m not old enough”. She’s now 75.
And so, after a typically colourful and charismatic final where all performances went by smoothly (with no stage invasions, making a refreshing change), Martin Osterdahl confirms that they have received, calculated and verified the results from both juries and televoters. Which means we can, you’ve guessed it, take it away.
Here’s how the table looks at the half-way stage:
JURY VOTE – FINAL TABLE
2. United Kingdom (213)
3. Netherlands (162)
4. Sweden (156)
5. Spain (153)
6. France (138)
7. Italy (136)
8. Russia (114)
9. Kosovo (111)
10. Georgia (83)
11. Portugal (82)
12. Albania (78)
13. Germany (77)
14. Ireland (76)
15. Denmark (71)
16. Turkey (71)
17. Serbia (65)
18. Norway (60)
19. Latvia (48)
20. Bosnia (44)
21. Belgium (24)
22. Czech Republic (24)
23. Iceland (20)
24. Romania (17)
25. Finland (15)
26. Luxembourg (1)
After the expected relatively close-run two-horse race, Adele found herself in pole position until around the halfway stage, but it was Wham! who took the essentially redundant title of jury vote winner. It’s a particularly dubious honour when you consider that only Salvador in 2017 has gone on to win the contest, and in all other post-2016 contests, the jury winner has never won over the televote winner. Westlife and Whigfield have both failed to live up to many people’s expectations so far, while returning Luxembourg will wonder why they bothered – lying rock bottom with one solitary point to their name. Still, as we see almost perennially, the televotes can change everything.
You know what happens now. Yes, it’s time for the televote points to be announced, in reverse order by which they finished in the jury vote table.
The 26th placed country with the juries was Luxembourg. And they receive, from the public…. 47 points!
Graham responds with a “wow, well, I don’t think anyone was expecting that!”
The 25th placed country with the juries was Finland. And they receive, from the public… 44 points!
Rasmus’ fanbase rewarding them accordingly. Another big score, but this one perhaps not so surprising,
The 24th placed country with the juries was Romania. And they receive, from the public…37 points!
Graham: “Well, the bottoms were always going to get them some points”.
The 23rd placed country with the juries was Iceland. And they receive, from the public… 90 points!
Graham: “This is a stark contrast to last year, where the bottom four all received zeroes”.
The 22nd placed country with the juries was the Czech Republic. And they receive, from the public… 48 points!
The 21st placed country with the juries was Belgium. And they receive, from the public… 7 points!
This now guarantees that they will finish last. Graham: “We come crashing down to reality”.
The 20th placed country with the juries was Bosnia & Herzegovina. And they receive, from the public… 69 points! Dua was always going to do well with the public, particularly representing a Balkan nation.
The 19th placed country with the juries was Latvia. And they receive, from the public… 50 points!
The 18th placed country with the juries with Norway. And they receive, from the public… 115 points!
Which puts them third. The biggest score so far, but isn’t nearly enough for them to win.
The 17th placed country with the juries was Serbia. And they receive, from the public… 96 points!
Graham: “They always do rather better with the public”. This now puts them fourth.
The 16th placed country with the juries was Turkey. And they receive, from the public… 53 points!
The 15th placed country with the juries was Denmark. And they receive, from the public… 77 points! Graham: “Not quite the night for Sannie that many people expected”.
The 14th placed country with the juries was Ireland. And they receive, from the public… 39 points! Graham: “Not quite their night either”.
The 13th placed country with the juries was Germany. And they receive, from the public… 37 points!
Graham: “You do wonder what might have been if they’d sung in English”.
The 12th placed country with the juries was Albania. And they receive, from the public… 95 points!
They are now fourth.
The 11th placed country with the juries was Portugal. And they receive, from the public… 71 points!
We now move into the top ten.
The tenth placed country with the juries was Georgia. And they receive, from the public… 131 points!
This puts them second. Graham: “Won’t be enough to win, but it’s certainly surprised a few people. It’s actually performed better with the televoters, which perhaps wasn’t expected, although Katy Melua is very popular, of course”.
The ninth placed country with the juries was Kosovo. And they receive, from the public… 134 points!
Graham: “Well, much was expected of Rita, and it’s a memorable debut for Kosovo. Waited a long time, but some things are worth waiting for. It does put them top, but they’re not likely to stay there”.
The eighth placed country with the juries was Russia. And they receive, from the public… 148 points!
Kosovo’s bubble is immediately burst as they are pushed down into second.
The seventh placed country with the juries was Italy. And they receive, from the public…
(Longest pause so far)
… 203 points! The leadership changes hands once again.
Graham: “aaaaand… YES! That puts them into the lead. But will it be enough to claim a second successive title for Italy? I don’t think it will, but it could be a close-run thing”.
The sixth placed country with the juries was France. And they receive, from the public…
… 138 points!
Graham: “Well, that is unusual that a country would score the exact same number of points with both juries and the public. Unless you’re James Newman”.
The fifth placed country for the juries was Spain. And they receive, from the public…
… 50 points! Suffice to say, this will not be enough to win.
The fourth placed country with the juries was Sweden. And they receive, from the public…
… 89 points! As often happens for the Swedes, the televoters let them down, meaning they can now finish no higher than fourth overall.
And now, as is the custom every year, a four-way split-screen appears; with the four artists still able to win. 2 Unlimited, Adele, Wham! and Eiffel 65 – all putting on their best excited faces, as you might expect, but you can only imagine what is going through their minds.
The third placed country with the juries was the Netherlands. And they receive, from the public…
… 50 points! Graham: “That’s another country that hasn’t lived up to expectations this year. And once again it highlights the disparity between juries and public, as we so often see”.
Turning his attention to Adele’s score, which will be announced next, Graham continues:
“And whatever happens now, we can be very proud of our girl. I have a feeling, unfortunately, that the televoters won’t quite be as generous as the juries were. But it’s a big improvement; we all remember what happened last year”.
The second placed country with the juries was the United Kingdom. And they receive, from the public…
… 77 points!
A collective groan from the typically large British contingent sweeps across the arena.
Graham: “Well, it was perhaps to be expected. But the good news is, we’re staying in the Mediterranean next year”.
So, Cyprus need to score a minimum of 107 points to win the contest. Graham: “I think they will”.
And so, with one country remaining, it is between Italy and Cyprus.
The two-way split-screen appears, and Mika states: “it’s now time to reveal who has won the Eurovision Song Contest 2022. Are we staying here in Italy next year, or shuffling just across the Mediterranean to Cyprus? Let’s find out. The first placed country with the juries was Cyprus. And they receive, from the public…
*pauses for around 15 seconds*
… 198 points!!!!
It’s all over. And so is the long wait for a Cypriot victory. 40 years of trying has finally brought them their first Eurovision title, by a margin of 91 points over second place.
FINAL TABLE
1. Cyprus (430)
2. Italy (339)
3. United Kingdom (290)
4. France (276)
5. Russia (262)
6. Sweden (245)
7. Kosovo (245)
8. Georgia (214)
9. Netherlands (212)
10. Spain (203)
11. Norway (175)
12. Albania (173)
13. Serbia (161)
14. Portugal (153)
15. Denmark (148)
16. Turkey (124)
17. Ireland (115)
18. Germany (114)
19. Bosnia & Herzegovina (113)
20. Iceland (110)
21. Latvia (98)
22. Czech Republic (72)
23. Finland (59)
24. Romania (54)
25. Luxembourg (48)
26. Belgium (31)
And for those of you who’d like to see the televote table in order, please see below.
TELEVOTES – FINAL TABLE
1. Italy (203)
2. Cyprus (198)
3. Russia (148)
4. France (138)
5. Kosovo (134)
6. Georgia (131)
7. Norway (115)
8. Serbia (96)
9. Albania (95)
10. Iceland (90)
11. Sweden (89)
12. Denmark (77)
13. United Kingdom (77)
14. Portugal (71)
15. Bosnia (69)
16. Turkey (53)
17. Spain (50)
18. Latvia (50)
19. Netherlands (50)
20. Czech Republic (48)
21. Luxembourg (47)
22. Finland (44)
23. Ireland (39)
24. Romania (37)
25. Germany (37)
26. Belgium (7)
Firstly, I have to be grateful for the voting system being changed slightly in 2019 – doing it the 2016-2018 way would have meant that I’d effectively have known the winner before I’d added the scores together, which would have killed the anticipation somewhat. Although it would have been much easier if they’d never changed it at all (pre-2016 times) – then I’d have only had one set of scores per country to determine!
Just out of curiosity, shall we see how the votes would have been different under the 2016-2018 system?
Ireland’s hopes would have been dashed much sooner – finishing 23rd with the public. Two of the jury front-runners, Spain and the Netherlands, both finishing joint 17th with 50 points, would have been out of the running surprisingly quick as well. The UK, finishing 13th with the public, would have been in the exact same situation that Cesar was for Austria in 2018 – clinging onto top spot, but for just how long?
Bjork would have risen from last place into the top half after being in the top 10 with the juries. A-Ha, finishing seventh with the public, rise from 22nd to 15th, and a similair story for Katy Melua; sixth with the public and climbing 16 places. Kosovo, France and Russia all missed their chance to go top; amazingly, Adele has still not been knocked off her perch just yet (although perhaps not that incredible, considering how much more evenly spread the votes are than usual).
Big gasps and cheers are heard as Cyprus are announced as finishing second with the public, meaning it will still go down to the last announcement, with the host nation knowing they have won the televote for the second contest running, but there is still a chance of becoming the first nation to retain their title in nearly 30 years. A nation gets its calculators out once again – they need to score a minimum of 305 to retain their title. They are guaranteed a minimum of 198 – it’s still possible (Maneskin scored 318 of course) but given how evenly spread the score is, it seems unlikely.
The split-screen with both groups appears, the Mediterranean holds its breath, the announcement is made, and Italy have scored 203 points. A good score, but not nearly enough. Equally heart-breaking for Italy as the current system, although at least this way they’d have been announced as televote winners. Perhaps it would have been slightly more exciting, but as someone who much prefers the 2019-2021 system, it ultimately makes little difference.
The most noticeable difference is how evenly spread out the votes are compared to the 2021 contest. To put this into context, Luxembourg’s 47 points was only enough for 21st place in the public ranking. By comparison, Destiny scored the same amount in Rotterdam which, despite being significantly lower than her jury score, was enough to land her in midtable. Lasgo’s mere seven points saw them finish last (both overall and with the public), but this pales in comparison to the horror show in which four countries finished with zero from the public, and poor old James with zero from both.
I should ask myself, at this point, who would be the most likely winners based on the songs and staging alone? So, for the moment, it’s just like most years, where popularity of the performers involved is mostly irrelevant. Cyprus would no doubt be up there. A catchy, bouncy song with mass appeal to all ages with the white lycra suits and flashing panels below them. All the elements right there. Denmark would be difficult to beat; memorable song by an attractive singer and the world-famous dance moves. The Netherlands would also be in with a chance – singing first is never helpful, although, lest we forget, it was for compatriots Teach-In in 1975. Once again, Luxembourg and the Czech Republic would be likely to bring up the rear – indie-rock and acoustic music has a sizeable fanbase (I am one of them) but sadly not in the Eurovision environment.
Another significant factor, although perhaps not surprising, is that all songs (except for Germany on the night) were sung in English. This is unlikely ever to be seen in the contest, even though the majority of countries do sing in English; unsurprising when you consider that, since the free-language rule was introduced in 1999, only 5 of the 23 winners have been sung even partly in the winning country’s own language.
So, what do you think? Feel free to comment if you agree or disagree with any of the predictions I have made; which artist/song each nation would send, where they’d be likely to finish, who the winners might be, and the various factors that would work differently in this alternative contest. Or, if you’d just like to say how much you enjoyed reading my wonderful article, then please do.
Of course, such a scenario is seemingly impossible as too many artists would consider entering Eurovision to be “career suicide”. Perhaps that’s the best thing about our great contest; it could be considered the Olympics of music in that it gives lesser-known artists – potentially anybody – the chance to compete and win for their nation. Everyone’s got their own opinion, but perhaps bigger isn’t always better?