Note – please be advised, although this article was published in February 2022, it was written in late 2020 and does not take into account the results of the 2021 contest. For this reason, some of the information, opinion and analysis you read will be outdated.
On Wednesday 18th March 2020, for the first time in its 65-year history, the Eurovision Song Contest was cancelled. Admittedly, being announced in the throes of the COVID19 pandemic, it was hardly unthinkable – with all but online or socially-distanced events suffering the same fate from then on in the year, and even the most diehard of fans would have had more important things to worry about at the time.
The point of this article, however, is not to dwell on what might have been, but to look at how the contest might have gone if it had happened as planned. Who would have won? Who would have narrowly missed out? Who would have finished last? And where would James Newman have ended up for the UK?
Of course, we will never know the answers to any of these questions. And of course, there’s no right or wrong answers; you may read this and completely disagree with some or all of my reckoning. Perhaps the best thing about the cancellation is also the worst; none of the usual quarrels about the “real” winner. Your guess, in all seriousness, is as good as mine.
In true Eurovision spirit, the contest’s fanbase came together. With the majority of the continent being told to stay at home, a community which only congregates together in person for events infrequently, saw this as the perfect opportunity to share memories, predictions for what would have been, and inevitably, their own fantasy contests for fans to vote in.
Whilst, despite their best efforts and contributions, no pretend contest could ever compensate for the lack of a real thing, they could serve as a useful resource for suggesting how the results may have gone. We have to factor in here, of course, that at most the number of votes would have more likely been in its hundreds or thousands rather than the usual millions, and also that the majority of voters would have been diehard Eurovision fans, and not the general public who, for the most part, have little or no interest outside of the contest week in May every year.
Still, the numerous contests taking place online – most of which conducted in the usual split vote manner, with juries and televoters carrying equal weight – produced a variety of winners. Eurovision Online and Euro Scorer, saw Iceland and Switzerland victorious respectively, with Lithuania winning Stefan Raab’s miniature, virtual contest. Victories for Malta and Italy in other contests prove it could have been much more of an open title race than some may have envisaged.
With those being the most reliable of indicators available, let’s now take a look at how both the juries and public would have been likely to vote. Taking also into account the way both have voted in the previous four years under the current split vote system, which was first introduced in 2016.
Perhaps the most obvious pattern you may have noticed is that the juries, who always announce their votes first, have, on all four occasions, voted for a ballad as their favourite. With the exception of Salvador’s phenomenal success for Portugal, however, all of these ballads have performed significantly less impressively in the televote – suggesting that the two look for very different things.
With this in mind, it appears that Gjon from Switzerland would have been the obvious winner for the juries – a heartfelt ballad which replicated the winning formula of Duncan Laurence from the previous year. This leaves the likelihood that a close second in the jury vote could have proved pivotal in swinging the title one way or the other.
For the televoters, it seems likely that several countries would be fighting it out for much needed points in which the number of points gained, and margins over their competitors, could mean far more than simply the essentially redundant title of televote winner.
The “wow” factor came from three countries in particular; the phenomenal success of Dadi Freyr from Iceland – becoming an almost overnight YouTube sensation more than two months before the contest was due to take place – suggests that it would have finally been their year after 35 years of disappointment. Also winning fans across the continent were the Roop from Lithuania, and Russia with domestic superstars Little Big – though one suspects the high-kitsch nature of their songs (the latter in particular) would have polarised opinion and, more crucially, left them wanting with the juries. All of them got the visual elements down to a tee – in today’s contest, arguably a greater factor than the song itself – the green pixilated images on the green shirts for Dadi, the hands over the back of the head for the Roop, and all three songs demonstrating a dance that were replicated the world over.
Is it possible, even quite likely, that one of these songs would have won? Possibly. But in what could have been one of the most open of title races in decades, there’s still no guarantee. It could even have been tipped the way of an outside bet; a likeable, even if less memorable, pop song which would have gained a steady score in both votes, setting neither alight but equally, and again crucially, not bombing in either.
Contenders for an example of that scenario include Germany’s Violent Thing – a modern, upbeat pop song; Malta’s Destiny – already a Eurovision winner in the Junior contest in 2015 and a contestant on the Voice UK – or Bulgaria’s Tears Getting Sober – a ballad lacking in raw emotion and power, but earning points for, if nothing else, the similarity to current international pop sensation, Billie Eilish.
Lastly, looking at the UK’s song, My Last Breath, performed by James Newman; award-winning songwriter, and elder brother of John who is most known for his 2013 single, ‘Love Me Again’. Another ballad probably wasn’t the greatest idea to follow the previous year’s disappointment, but a much stronger effort, earning praise from Eurovision fans, may have earned the UK a much-improved result, even if not a spectacular one.
Moving forward to next year’s contest. Well, that’s the most important thing; with an announcement on Sunday 17th May (what would have been the morning after the night before) confirming that there will definitely be a contest next year. Many countries have already confirmed that their would-have-been contestants will be returning, albeit with different songs as 2020 entries will not be permitted. There is a strong possibility that several others won’t return, though we hope they will get their chance in the future.
For Iceland – many people’s “winner that wasn’t” – the afore-mentioned wow factor may no longer be there, although with a song of equal strength to ‘Think About Things’, it could still be theirs to lose. Failure to capitalise could prove good news for Malta in particular, with Destiny set to return with what we suspect will be a much stronger song than the arguably lightweight ‘All of My Love’. Her fame and success will increase the pressure on a young girl of only 18 come the time, but could still provide a great opportunity for ending an even longer wait; with 2021 marking the 50-year anniversary of their first appearance.
So, who would actually have won? Well, it’s impossible to say. Rather than answer the question with any definitive confidence myself, I’ll leave you to draw your own conclusions. Essentially, that’s all we can do. With no idea of what each nation would have done with regard to staging on the night, it’s even harder to say.
It’ll forever be the biggest unanswered question for every Eurovision fan.
