Welcome to the first in a series called “The Great Debates” where, as it says on the tin, we go into detail about some of the biggest bones of contention in the Eurovision world.
I should stress that the intention of this series isn’t to try and tell people what is categorically right or wrong. We all, of course, have our own opinions on these often-contentious issues, and there’s always at least some room for nuance.
Furthermore, I intend to be balanced in my judgements; assessing both sides of the argument with accompanying relevant statistics to demonstrate each point. You will find yourself agreeing or disagreeing with various aspects, and that’s fine.
I just need to make it clear that I am a fan of the contest like any other, and not the ultimate Eurovision guru. Though, I’d like to think, as far as fans go, I’m pretty knowledgeable. But self-praise is no praise at all, I’m aware.
The first topic I am covering in this series takes a look at how other factors, which are not simply about the song, staging or performance, may affect an entry’s chances of success. And the first point I will be assessing is whether or not being an automatic qualifier is a barrier to success in the Grand Final. So, for those of you still learning about how the contest works, the “big five” – referring to France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom – gain automatic qualification to the Grand Final on Saturday night every year and do not have to qualify from the semi-finals like all the other nations, except for the host nation – usually the winner of the previous year’s contest.
The obvious argument that almost immediately springs to mind is that it didn’t stop Maneskin from ending thirty years of hurt for Italy in 2021 – despite being comparatively ignored by the juries, a substantial televote score proved enough to give them a slender victory over Barbara Pravi – representing, incidentally, another big 5 nation.
So, with the top two finishers being from pre-qualified nations – and perhaps even more interestingly, both singing in their native languages – the argument that being an automatic qualifier is a barrier to success appears to have been defeated.
Indeed, it would only be necessary to refer to the success of Michael Schulte for Germany (fifth in 2018), and the assertion that arguably, in any normal year, either Chanel or Sam Ryder would have won in Turin – to demonstrate how all of the big 5 nations can – and have – performed above and beyond many people’s expectations with a song, artist or staging that will appeal to enough people. The majority of Italy’s results will also demonstrate that a positive attitude towards the contest will pay dividends in results.
However, if we were to just leave it at that, then it wouldn’t be a very good article, would it? Because, well, as I said earlier, it is meant to be a series about debating and evaluating each side of the argument. It would, therefore, be somewhat remiss not to mention that, in the same year of Maneskin’s victory (2021), all of the other pre-qualified nations finished at the very bottom in all three voting tables.
There is, of course, the contributing factor that televoters will vote en masse for their favourite songs, and will often ignore the songs they dislike (or, moreover, simply pass them by unnoticed). The juries, on the other hand, will usually reward most songs with at least some points.
As for being the host nation – well, essentially, that’s a different situation altogether. Most host nations don’t want to be lumbered with the expense and effort involved with hosting in successive years. In the 1990’s, when Ireland would win routinely, the costs involved were significantly minimal in comparison to the modern extravaganza. It therefore stands to reason that a nation would not be likely to send a song or artist that would win for a second year in succession.
To investigate the possibility that being an automatic qualifier puts a song at a disadvantage, I have analysed the results every year since automatic qualifiers became a permanent thing – when the afore-mentioned “big four” were introduced (at the time – Italy rejoined in 2011 and it became the big five). Bear with me, this may take a while…
Before the permanent introduction of semi-finals, the results of all big four nations were generally a lot more respectable; at worst, they were occasionally disappointing – all finishing in the top 20 on nearly every occasion. Jemini becoming the UK’s first zero in 2003 (which appeared to have much more to do with other reasons, but that’s a debate for another day). 2004 was the first year in which it became a permanent fixture; a semi-final was used in 1993 and 1996, but all songs had to compete for their place in the final, and it was behind closed doors with only juries present – in stark contrast to today’s semi-finals, and in particular the last two years where only the public may vote in them.
Between 2004 and 2007, there was only one semi-final; each producing ten qualifiers. During this period, nearly every nation used televoting, with juries only used as back-up in the event that televoting was not possible for whatever reason. For the first two years, of all the nations that had to qualify, only North Macedonia failed to make the top 10 in the final on both occasions, with the Netherlands finishing a significant low of 20th with Reunion’s “Without You” – always a borderline qualifier at best. In 2006, the fortunes of the qualifiers got even better – all ten finished in the top half, and then a year later, none finished below 16th.
In 2008, the final year before juries were re-introduced, a second semi-final was introduced for the first time. Two of the automatic qualifiers – Germany and the UK – finished joint last with 14 points each, along with Poland’s Isis Gee.
Between 2009 and 2015, while the juries and televoters carried equal weight, they were condensed into the “one set of votes per nation” system which had been in place since 1975. The individual split results were revealed after the contest, but had no bearing on the actual result on the night. Nonetheless, we’ll take a look at how the big four (five from 2011 when Italy rejoined) and host nations fared with all three voting tables during this time.
Spain finished second from last overall in 2009 (and with the juries) and then again in 2011 – in 2013, they would have finished last with both juries and televoters under the system from 2016 onwards. Luckily for them, under the system at the time, they were spared last place, which instead went to Ireland’s Ryan Dolan.
In 2010 – the only occasion in which a big 4/5 nation triumphed since their introduction, until Maneskin’s victory eleven years later – Josh Dubovie finished last for the UK with juries, televoters and in the final results; his song “That Sounds Good to Me” – a Stock, Aitken and Waterman production (well, Crosby instead of Aitken, but let’s not split hairs now), which would have fared rather better in the 80’s or 90’s, but was somewhat outdated by then. A harsh comedown after the top 5 success of Jade Ewen the previous year, with Lena’s “Satellite” demonstrating the difference that can be made between sending a modern pop song, and a somewhat outdated one.
In 2012, it was a similar comedown for the UK – Engelbert Humperdinck may have sold more records than the over-whelming majority of contestants in Eurovision history, but this counted for precious little with a dour and forgettable song which also had the disadvantage of performing first, as Blue’s near top 10 miss a year previously was quickly forgotten. He finished last with the juries, and second from last overall.
As for France, they were last with all three in 2014 – scoring only two points, and would’ve scored zero with the televoters under the new system. In 2013, they were second from last with the televoters.
In 2015 – the final year before the voting system was reformed to how we know it now – the bottom four nations were all automatic qualifiers, scoring a not-so-grand total of nine points between them. Language-sharing neighbours Austria and Germany both scoring the dreaded zero – the first time this had happened to any song since the permanent introduction of semi-finals (and subsequent increase in nations voting in the final) – and also the first time any host nation had failed to score a single point. Rather like in 2003, this served as a catalyst for major change to the qualification/voting system from the following year.
So, with the biggest shake-up to the voting system in over 40 years – and now twice the amount of points available – how did this change the fortunes of automatic qualifiers? Well, immediately, not a lot. Three of the big five were last overall. Germany, scoring only one point with the juries, finished last overall.
A year later, Spain scored zero with the juries and only five from the public (though, let’s bear in mind most people are in agreement that Manel’s ‘Do it for Your Lover was truly terrible – like an out-of-tune teenager performing a cover of Bruno Mars’ ‘Lazy Song’ for the first time at an open mic night), consigning him to last place overall. Manel, along with Levina from Germany and host nation Ukraine, made up the bottom three with the public, and on aggregate.
In 2018, host nation Portugal finished second from last with both juries and televoters, and rock bottom overall. Of the three nations finishing directly above them, two (Spain and the UK) were also automatic qualifiers. In 2019, both of the zero pointers – host nation Israel with the juries and Germany with the public – had qualified automatically. The bottom two – both overall and with the televoters – were Germany and the UK, and with the juries, the bottom three were Israel, Spain and the UK. All of whom, yes, you’ve guessed it…
In 2021 – a year of unprecedented polarisation for automatic qualifiers, the bottom four nations with the juries scored a combined total of only 20 points, and infamously all scored zero from the public. At the other end of the table, as mentioned earlier, Italy and France finished as the top two.
Germany then finished last overall two years in a row (bottom with the juries on both occasions; another zero in 2022), but fared better with the televoters on both occasions. France fell from second to second from bottom, with Mae Muller from the UK suffering the exact same scenario the following year. In Liverpool, the public’s bottom 3 were Spain, the UK and Germany.
In 2024, perhaps the most notable (and potentially revolutionary) change was introduced. A change I had been purporting for years, infact. Whilst still not needing to qualify, all of the automatic qualifiers would be able to perform live in the semi-finals. Even more interestingly, their performances would be integrated into the running order, rather than all in succession either before or after all of the competitive performances. This appeared to have a significant impact on the final table – with only Spain finishing near the bottom overall.
Between 2004 and 2024, exactly 15 of the 20 songs that finished last overall were automatic qualifiers (2008 is included in the 15 as, although 3 songs finished dead last, 2 of them – UK and Germany – were both automatic qualifiers). So, that’s exactly 3 quarters (or 75% if you prefer) of the time an automatic qualifier finished last overall. Since 2009 – when both the juries’ and televoters’ scores have been made public – 11 out of the 15 last placed songs have been from automatic qualifiers.
With the public, this number is slightly lower – 9 out of 15. Perhaps most notably, 2024 was the first year in exactly a decade (notwithstanding the COVID cancelled 2020 contest) that an automatic qualifier did not finish last (Spain, finishing fourth from bottom, were the lowest). In total, 35 of the 50 last-placed songs were automatic qualifiers. That’s exactly 70% (I failed GCSE Maths twice but even I worked that out pretty instantly) – over a third!
So, if you’re still reading at this point (I did warn you it would take a while), it’s now time to look into the reasons for these results. As you can see, automatic qualifiers finishing near the bottom is a markedly regular occurrence. This being said, as was particularly demonstrated in 2021, the results can be decidedly variable depending on the type, and quality, of song.
As we’ve already spent more than enough time listing the various results, we won’t evaluate every single song sent by an automatically qualified nation. Instead, we’ll just focus on the songs that scored zero (either with juries, the public or James Newman). Yes, James, we’re starting with you. Being a Brit myself, I didn’t really have the words for it, and still don’t, so I’ll just quote my Dutch friend who gave me his thoughts on the morning after the night before. His words were “mediocre song by a lacklustre performer with a hardly thought-through staging. That’s a zero”.
Olly Alexander, three years later, managed a top half finish with the juries, but scored nothing from the public. In my opinion, it was undeserved and surprising, but in a year where staging, lighting and general theatrics took priority over originality of song, a carbon-copy of It’s a Sin with a hint of Deeper Shade of Blue was never likely to be enough to stand out for the masses. The visuals, staging and dancers, along with Olly’s experience of commanding a stage, were always more likely to be acknowledged by the juries.
When watching the announcement, my initial feeling was of shock, but not surprise (though, naturally, I still put my head in my hands and threw my Union Jack on the floor in frustration). The juries always tend to reward British entries far more than the public. Only SuRie’s handling of the stage invasion helped her to a marginally higher total than the juries gave in 2018.
Sam Ryder’s achievements in 2022 were a clear message to those who erroneously believe (mostly non-fans) that “nobody will ever vote for us again because it’s all political and Europe hates us”, but even then, the difference between juries and public was clear for all to see – exactly 100 points, to be precise, and four places lower (though, admittedly, as I’ve said already, he probably would have got more in a normal year).
And now for Germany’s zeroes. Firstly, in 2015. Ella Eyre might have been very well established as a singer, but her song ‘Black Smoke’ bore no fruit for Ann-Sophie. It didn’t help that it wasn’t even Germany’s first choice, with Andreas Kummert controversially announcing his decision not to represent his nation immediately after winning the national final. Pleasant and likeable, just not outstanding enough to gain a point.
Jendrik’s ‘I Don’t Feel Hate’ (with the public) and Malik’s ‘RockStars’ (with the juries) also suffered the same fate. The latter didn’t really come as a surprise for me, but with the giant middle finger, a memorable hook and relatable theme (online abuse is an issue very close to my heart), I expected it to score far more than the mere three points it managed overall.
Turning our attention now to the songs that scored zero that were not automatic qualifiers – all of which, incidentally, were with the televoters. I Stand by Gabriela Guncikova (Czechia 2016), Running on Air by Nathan Trent (Austria 2017) and Boys Do Cry by Marius Bear (Switzerland 2022). Gabriela and Marius were not a surprise as they were both emotional ballads – much more likely to be rewarded by the juries. Nathan was perhaps more so, especially considering the top ten finish with the juries, but again, it wasn’t the type of song that the public would be likely to vote for in droves.
So, as you can see, the statistics are there to demonstrate that being an automatic qualifier can put a song at a disadvantage, but that alone isn’t enough to prove the point either way. We still need to go into the reasons and factors as to why it could be.
Logically, the main correlation appears to be the fact that not having the exposure from performing in the semi-final means that many of the semi-final viewers will have already decided on a favourite by the time the final comes. This argument, however, could be counteracted by the fact that viewing figures across the continent will always be vastly higher for the final than in the semi-finals.
The next issue I will cover is if a nation can still succeed despite not having a substantial televote support base; most likely due to not having a diaspora. Taking a closer look at the results of certain nations; those who appear to benefit much more from juries are Australia, Malta, Sweden, Portugal and the United Kingdom. With the televoters, the momentum swings more towards Moldova, Norway, Serbia and Ukraine, amongst others.
So, what are the main reasons for these discrepancies? Well, in Malta’s case, it seems somewhat obvious. A nation with less than half a million people (many of whom are expats) are unlikely to produce a significant diaspora. For Australia, the lack of support appears to be more rooted in the fact that many people do not agree with their participation (in all fairness, it is a bit like England being allowed to compete in the African Cup of Nations).
For Portugal, Sweden and the UK – though all of these nations have won, or come very close, under the post-2016 system, their comparative lack of support with the televoters is more to do with the kind of songs they send. Very few of the songs sent by any of the jury-favoured nations could have been considered particularly left-field; too far from the middle-of-the-road, as it were, or particularly flashy or gimmicky, in line with what televoters usually vote for.
By comparison; the nations I referenced earlier (Moldova, Norway, Serbia and Ukraine, just to remind you), tend to send songs which tick more of those boxes that appeal to televoters. In Serbia’s case – the support they have particularly among neighbours and fellow former Yugoslav states doesn’t always guarantee them a place in the final, but usually does translate to points if they qualify.
For Ukraine – the only nation never to have failed to qualify from a semi-final – though their diaspora is always helpful, the large anti-Russian sentiment – which has grown even more in recent years for somewhat obvious reasons – has translated into substantial gains with the public, including two victories (they are the only nation to have won twice under the split voting system), to add to their 2004 success under the previous system. That’s not to say diaspora alone will win the contest for any nation – obviously it won’t.
As a final point, to demonstrate that I’ve actually done some research (albeit the bare minimum), I asked the question in some of the most popular Eurovision fan groups, that: “if Maneskin had entered for San Marino instead of Italy, would they still have won?”. The majority of responders seemed to agree that they would have – believing that the reasons for their victory were due to the song, performance, and engagement with the audiences, though I made the argument that a micro-state with a population of less than 40,000 would not have a diaspora large enough for them to gain the required 300+ points that Maneskin received from the public. I realise there’s no way of proving if this would be correct, but it’s my logical assumption.
One in particular described how having a diaspora doesn’t give a country the advantage some people believe – pointing out how Poland have failed to qualify for the final on numerous occasions, Romania recently scored their first zero, and Lithuania have never finished higher than sixth. He also claims that it’s a fallacy that not having a diaspora can prevent a country from winning – the only things that do are a poor attitude towards the contest; a half-hearted strategy with mediocre songs performed by acts with little or no sticking power.
I also asked the same friend I mentioned earlier (in the same conversation, incidentally) why he thought Destiny fared so poorly with the public in comparison to the juries. Whilst he mentioned that she “did a woeful job of getting her message across” (in his opinion), he also acknowledged that “there’s no natural televote support for Malta”. To demonstrate this point, in 2023 – the first year of juries being removed from the semi-finals, Malta and San Marino scored only three points between them; with the poor Piqued Jacks becoming the first semi-finalists since 2009 not to score a single point.
The third (and final, maybe) point for debate is if a song can win despite having a poor position in the running order. Once again, a hard day’s work of researching and noting all of the relevant statistics from Wikipedia was in order, but it all paid off. Having analysed by decade – in conjunction with how many songs on average competed during the relevant era – the most outstanding constant throughout was that the average winning position was after the halfway stage, and only during the 1980’s did it gravitate to slightly beyond two-thirds of the way through.
Looking at the number of songs to have won from each position. Unsurprisingly, the numbers tend to increase as we get towards the middle (from 8th onwards). 17th is by far the most lucrative position to perform in – though considering it has included Lordi and then Molitva in successive years, and Euphoria only a few years later, it’s had a slightly unfair advantage. Eighth place has seen six victories, but one of those was Lenny Kuhr as part of the four-way tie in 1969.
The only other position to have seen five victories (without being one of the four-way tie) is 20th – albeit this is only because of Joost being disqualified this year, resulting in all but four performers being brought forward. 14th has also seen five victories, but again, that includes Frida Boccara in 1969.
The unluckiest positions are second, 25th, 26th, 27th, and the most surprising, 16th. On paper, and considering the many previously mentioned victories from 17th position, there’s no discernible reason for this – it appears to be the ideal position, yet it has still to bear a victory. The others are much easier to understand – 25 songs were only seen in the contest from 1993 – when numerous nations entered for the first time. Though it should be pointed out that the only song ever to have been performed in 27th position in a final – Il Volo for Italy in 2015 – finished third overall and was the televote winner.
Second place is the most documented of the ne’er-do-wells – of course, being so early in the running order is never helpful, but with no victory in 68 contests, it appears to be a curse that is yet to be broken. In the last 20 years, where semi-finals have been a permanent fixture, a song before 10th has only won once (Tattoo) although 10th, 11th and 12th have all won twice.
Almost as unlucky are positions four, six and seven – all with only one victory each. Lys Assia won the inaugural contest for Switzerland in 1956 but nobody singing sixth has ever repeated the trick. Sertab secured Turkey’s, and fourth place’s, only victory in 2003, and Boom-Bang-a-Bang is the only winner from seventh place – meaning the position has never secured an outright victory. Perhaps more surprisingly, 21st (Jamala in 2016), and 23rd (Marie N for Latvia in 2002) have also only seen one victory – particularly as 22nd and 24th have both produced three respective victories.
Thinking, for the minute, about the possible contributing factors for these statistics. I remember being taught in my GCSE Psychology lessons about the primacy and recency effect (primacy means at or near the beginning; recency means at or near the end) – which suggests to me that the songs at the beginning and end should be the most well remembered. Incase you were wondering (you probably weren’t), I passed first time with a B – in stark contrast to my Maths exams I mentioned earlier that I failed both times.
In the Eurovision environment, however, it seldom seems to work this way. Only Ding-a-Dong and Brotherhood of Mann (in successive years, co-incidentally) in the mid-70’s, and then the Herreys in the mid-80’s, have ever achieved such a feat from opening the show. On the other hand, the song performed last has won six times; most of which were in the 70’s and 80’s; L’oiseau et L’enfant in 1977 (after the two afore-mentioned successive opening song victories), and the roles were reversed in 1982 and 1983 as the Herreys’ victory followed Nicole’s A Little Peace (the last winning entry to make number one in the UK charts) and then Corrine Hermes for Luxembourg a year later.
The former Yugoslavia’s one and only success in 1989 was the last time to date that the show’s closing number emerged victorious. In recent years, the notably disappointing results for Kaleen and Mae Muller – both expected by many to have secured much higher finishes – brought the potential pitfalls of performing last to light. Though, in both cases, it is arguable that neither song was outstanding enough for such a perilous position.
The only other thing that can have an impact that I think is worth discussing (I’m sure at this point you’re thoroughly bored and probably thinking “does this guy ever stop?”) is whether performing directly before or after a stronger song can make a difference. Personally, I think if a song is strong enough, it will stand out and get votes (though perhaps more so with the juries). However, I will quote two Eurovision fanatics in their assessments of respective situations. Graham Norton, during the 2023 final, remarked (when commentating, not presenting) that Vesna, performing for Czechia, would be likely to under-perform in the final results due to following Kaarija’s rousing fan-favourite, Cha Cha Cha.
In a recent edition of Vision (the official magazine for OGAE UK), editor in-chief Gordon Lewis wrote about Claudia Faniello’s ‘Breathlessly’ – competing for Malta in 2017 – how being followed directly by Romania’s ‘Yodel It’; intensely irritating, inane and daft, but uber-kitsch and ultimately a likely televote success (my words, not his), would have contributed to its failure to qualify from her semi-final. He also commented that performing as early as fourth meant that it would have most likely been forgotten by the televoters – emphasised by the fact that it gained the dreaded zero from the public, whereas the juries had ranked it eighth.
Asking this question in Eurovision groups, one made a point of echoing Graham Norton’s sentiments by saying how My Sister’s Crown sounded dull by comparison to Cha Cha Cha. Another, however, claims that it doesn’t matter to him as, when one song finishes, he always looks forward to the next. With people now able to hear all of the entries from the moment they’re released, as opposed to pre-social media times when most people only heard them all for the first time on the night (except for their home nation’s song), many people know who they’re voting for weeks in advance. In a different group, another pointed out that, now voting lines are open from the beginning, it shouldn’t make a lot of difference.
Well, I think that’s everything. I think I’ve rambled on for long enough now, in any case. If you’ve made this far, I both thank and congratulate you sincerely. But what do you think? Is being an automatic qualifier a barrier? Do diasporas, and other political factors, have the over-whelming impact that some people believe? And will the curses of 2nd and 16th position, and 25th onwards, ever be broken? Please let me know in the comments. Also, make sure you’re liking and following my page on Facebook – and I know this is pushing it, but if you really enjoyed it, perhaps even consider sharing it to your timeline, or with your friends who are also big Eurovision nerds and aren’t followers themselves as yet.
Thankyou very much for reading my long-winded, but hopefully interesting and informative article, and I hope you will continue supporting my blog by reading future articles. Hopefully they’ll be a bit less long-winded, but that’s hope rather than expectation. Ciao for now, Euro-fans.
